orange notes: Annie Duke – How to Decide

Must embrace the idea of counterfactual thinking

This leads to scenario planning to be proactive

You have to question your foundation of what you understand of the world
Which by necessity is very small

Beautiful mechanical explanation of my thoughts with beginning of infinity and humans as recursive improvers of ideas! #expand

Focus on expected value

Quit tuitive ness
Like 2 way door decisions
Type 1 or 2

Exercise options in parallel
Eg hedgea in finance

Wow the power of negative thinking!
This is what I've been doing all my life

Gary Klein pre mortem

Category decisions, and then check ins of your world model to update those decisions
Strong convictions loosely held

Rationalization of the small individual instances
Like Bernie, a goooooood reason

When individuals are interacting with each other (especially on teams) it tends towards hiding dispersion of opinion and highlighting alignment of opinion #big

Wow she is so smart and well spoken. Great clear easy to understand presentation. Great communicator.

The goal is NOT to find agreement!
In fact it is to find the points of disagreement so that we can query them and therefore maximize the amount information that the entire group has available for consideration.
It's ok to leave a meeting without concensus. #big

Wow this is so different from what we do at work. We do the complete opposite: talk things throughout until everyone is on the same page. I think the issue is a lack of a single decision maker/owner. Or a lack of process on how to "vote" and finalize the decision, if it's to be by majority (or the like). It's such a different paradigm that the entire company would have to redo all pre existing meeting structures. Fuck. It's a major cultural shift at the most fundamental level of how we do work. I'd like to think on this more #0 todo. This feels like an interesting place for org behavior research. The fundamentals of how to set up a work culture.

The goal of the decision maker in the meeting is to leave the most informed as possible.
Then decision making doesn't need to happen in the meeting necessarily! In fact maybe it explicitly shouldn't

Writing a book is like a really long and painful but why exercise on something you thought you were an expert on

Most important habit: making the bed
I like this a lot, I've made this a primary one for myself too. I agree with the idea that the feeling of putting your environment orderly gives you the headspace to then let your ideas run free (and extract great value from them)

Wow I'm SO aligned with her philosophically. Love the note on allowing room for nuance.


Great pod



Thinking all the time, writing poorly some of the time

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